Gold prices reinvigorated by yield curve inversion, futures closed at highest levels since 2013

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  • Gold prices picked-up a bid on fears of a global recession.
  • On a break of resistance, bulls can look to the 127.2% Fibo target which is located around 1,560.

Spot gold has been travelling to the upside in but has met a wall at the highs of $1,524.10 from a low of $1,494.20. Futures, on the other hand, marked their highest finish since 2013 on recession sentiment bounding around the markets following disappointing data from China and the eurozone at the same time that UK’s and US’s 2/10-year yield curves inverted for the first time since the Global Finacial Crisis. 

Gold for December delivery on Comex added $13.70, or 0.9%, to settle at $1,527.80 an ounce, bouncing back from a 2% loss the prior day. Gold’s sister precious metal, silver, also had a good run on the day. Spot prices rallied over 2.5%, between a range of $16.87 and $17.32.  September silver added 29.5 cents, or 1.7%, to $17.28 an ounce. The gold and silver ratio was down -0.50% travelling from a high of 88.60 to a low of 87.83 as silver tends to play catch up with gold.

As for US yields, the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note traded below the yield on the 2-year note, marking the first inversion of the curve since the crisis while the 3-month vs. 10-year measure of the curve has been inverted since earlier this year, signalling that current longer-term yields will not be sustained in their current interest rate environment. The markets use this indicator as a recession gauge. However, Gregory Daco, chief US economist at Oxford Economics, points out that there has been a gap of 10 months to three years between the indicator occurring and the previous recessions in the US.

Where to now?

Gold prices have continued to outperform across the FX space as the go-to place for when risk-off hits the fan and is tinkering on a surge much higher in this current deterioration of risk appetite and pending doom environment. Trump is making hard work of the trade wars and had likely shown his hand too soon in delaying the tariffs in a state of panic as US stocks crumble ahead of the 59th quadrennial U.S. presidential elections 2020, scheduled for Tuesday, November 3. While this might be some way off, time travels fast in the world of politics and markets, yet the trade war saga is not about to be resolved any time soon.

Trump needs the Federal Reserve to toe the line in which they still may well do, but only for meeting their three key objectives for monetary policy in the Federal Reserve Act which are to maximize employment and stabilizing prices, (AKA, their dual mandate), and moderate long-term interest rates – and that is where the Fed trade is playing out on gold prices – Interest rates are expected to fall and while gold doesn’t offer a yield, the paradox is when compared to falling rates and downbeat global data, a reinvigorated gold most certainly will. 

Gold levels

Gold has been holding territories above the psychologically important 1450s for the best part of august. In more recent trade, the 1500 level was breached yesterday to 1480 but the bulls showed their commitments and we are back onto a bullish trajectory.  On a continuation, to the upside, the 1528/30s comes as a prior support area where the price was to be expected to hold initial tests. However, on a full-on break higher, bulls will look to the 127.2% Fibo target which is located around 1,560, guarding the Oct 2012 highs at 1795.

 

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