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Gold has been battling the $1,900 level amid fiscal stimulus speculation. Pre-election polls and US GDP stand out in the upcoming week but XAU/USD mostly hinges on Trump´s electoral chances, according to FXStreet’s Analyst Yohay Elam.

Key quotes

“The best-case scenario for gold is that Biden and Democrats win full control – thus enabling them to approve a generous stimulus bill – positive for XAU/USD. If Trump wins and Republicans hold onto the Senate, there is still a good chance of a significant relief package, albeit somewhat smaller.” 

“The worst-case scenario for the yellow metal is a Biden victory with a split Congress, an outcome that could paralyze Washington and potentially result in a minimal package. Senate polls are no less important than those for the presidency.”

“The first release of US Gross Domestic Product for the third quarter is forecast to show a substantial rebound after crashing in the previous period. An annualized increase of over 30% is expected. If GDP beats estimates, it could diminish the size of the relief package, while a miss could increase it.” 

“The European Central Bank’s rate decision is also set to move gold. Coronavirus cases are surging in the old continent, and several governments have imposed restrictions on activity and movement. The ECB deployed its Pandemic Emergency Purchase Program (PEPP) in the peak of the first wave, and could now open the door to printing more money. If Christine Lagarde, the bank’s president, hints at more action, gold could shine.”