According to preliminary figures, Greeks withdrew 3 billion euros from banks during the month of December in comparison to only 220 million euros in November.
This is certainly a big 13 fold jump and it can be easily correlated to the political uncertainty unfolding in the euro-zone member state. But are we seeing early sign of a Greek bank run? It is still a bit early to tell.
Mish reports that €600 million euros, a fifth of that amount, was withdrawn on December 29th, the day that the presidential elections collapsed and general elections were called.
Greeks go to the polls on January 25th, and there is a close race between the anti-bailout / anti-austerity left wing SYRIZA party and the center-right New Democracy party.
If the outcome is an outright victory for SYRIZA’s Alexis Tsipras or a hung parliament in Athens, we could see bank withdrawals accelerate. Together with the early reports that Germany is willing to accept a Greek exit from the euro-zone, this could elevate fear.
Back in 2012, when the crisis was far more dramatic for the whole euro-zone, there was an airlift of euros to the country, meant to prevent a shortage of physical bank notes.
In Cyprus, capital controls were introduced together with the planned haircut on bank deposits there in 2013.
Both outcomes seem unlikely at the moment. And at the moment, the focus is still on the ECB meeting on January 22nd, when the ECB is expected to introduce a €500 billion QE program, in which it buys bonds, excluding Greek ones.
But as the January 25th elections draw near, we could certainly see the euro react to any opinion poll and every report about withdrawals from Greek banks.
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