Seasons change and so do currencies. Sometimes there are nice patterns:
Here is their view, courtesy of eFXnews:
The USD has a seasonal tendency to weaken in April especially if expressed via long AUD/USD, short GBP/USD, and short USD/NOK, notes ANZ.
“Figure 1 shows how G10 and Asian currencies have performed during the month of April over the 2000- 15 period. A common theme during April is a tendency for the USD to weaken. This is most pronounced against NOK, KRW, AUD, and MYR.
The USD on average has weakened by 1.8% against NOK, KRW, and AUD during April at fairly regular intervals (at least 13 out of the last 16 years). The USD has weakened against MYR by an average of 1.7% in 9 out of the last 10 years since the de-peg.
There is also a strong tendency for the USD to weaken against GBP, having done so in 14 out of the last 16 years by an average of 1.3%. Given the ongoing concerns over Brexit, it is possible that the usual seasonal pattern could fail to eventuate this year,” ANZ clarifies.
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