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Hezbollah is preparing to take over Lebanon – perhaps by creating an alternative government, or by ousting Saad Hariri, which is now the prime minister of a temporary government. The Hezbollah indictments, by the Special Tribunal for Lebanon (STL), might be released as early as Monday, January 17th.

Hezbollah pushed Hariri to disconnect himself and Lebanon from the investigation, and already left his government last week. The indictments relate to the murder of former Lebanese prime minister Rafik Hariri, the father of Saad Hariri.

Why is all this written here? If Hezbollah takes full control of Lebanon, a civil war could erupt there and easily involve other countries. A fresh war with Israel, Lebanon’s southern neighbor could involve also Syria, Iran and flare up the Middle East, just days after the revolution in Tunisia ousted the president there.

Trouble in the Middle East means higher oil prices and especially a flow of money into safe haven currencies such as the US dollar, the Swiss franc and the Japanese yen.

Will we see a new era in Lebanon?