As expected, socialist opposition leader Françios Hollande and incumbent Nicolas Sarkozy win the first round of France’s presidential elections. They will challenge the presidency in a duel on May 6th.
Data leaked to independent French bloggers shows that Hollande got around 28-29% of votes, while Sarkozy trails behind with 26%.
EUR/USD gaps lower as the market opens on the results, which leave a lot of room for uncertainty.
Update 20:30 GMT: From incomplete real results, the same picture regarding the leading candidates emerges, but it is very different on the sidelines: Marine Le Pen (on the right) is now headed to gain 20% of the votes, while Jean-Luc Mélenchon on the left is projected to end up with only 11% of the votes.
The new picture means that the second round will be far more complicated and more volatile.
In the early reports, extreme left wing candidate Jean-Luc Mélenchon received a substantial received around 13-14%, more than expected. Extreme right wing candidate Marine Le Pen received 15-16%, similar to previous results of her camp. She didn’t strengthen her base. This wasn’t validates by the real results.
This shows that France is leaning more to the left, increasing the chances of Hollande to win over Sarkozy on May 6th. Hollande has pledged to renegotiate the fiscal compact agreed between Sarkozy and German chancellor Angela Merkel. This may add to uncertainty.
Official poll results are due at 18:00 GMT, with real official results only later on, yet the picture is quite clear. Update: full results aren’t out yet.Get the 5 most predictable currency pairs