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According to Shilan Shah, India Economist at Capital Economics, India’s April-June (Q1) GDP growth rate is likely to tick higher after the previous quarter’s slowdown.

Key Quotes

“India’s gross domestic product growth is likely to rise to 6% in April-June from a five-year low of 5.8% in January-March

Growth in personal loans (excluding vehicles) has remained stable, above 15% y/y. On balance, private consumption should have held up reasonably well.

What’s more, the recovery in production of capital goods suggests that the slump in investment growth has bottomed out.

The GDP growth to recover over the coming quarters, albeit modestly, as fiscal policy is likely to be supportive and interest rates have been slashed by 110 bps in 2019

Aggressive policy easing aimed at boosting demand will stoke inflation.”  

India’s Q1 GDP data is due on August, 30th.