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The FX market did not move much in the last two sessions, which is not a surprise as price action needs a break after very strong moves following the big FOMC decision on Wednesday.   This pause is called a corrective price action, it is a contra-trend movement that is part of larger on-going trend.

In our case we think that this trend is up on USD, down EURUSD. On the count below we called end of a five wave decline yesterday at 1.3160 from where recovery is overlapping and very slow.

Therefore we think it’s a corrective rally that will ideally stop in 1.3260-1.3300 range. We expect a completion of this pattern later today during the US session or on Monday.

EURUSD 1h

eur 06-21-13-intraday

E-min S&P500 also found some support a few sessions back after a completed five waves of decline that was confirmed by a recent push through the upper side of an EW channel. Ideally this market is now in (A)-(B)-(C) retracement back to 1610 which is our minimum upside objective; 38.2% Fibonacci retracement. From there traders should be aware of a new sell-off.

S&P Futures 30min

sp 06-21-13-intraday