ISM Manufacturing PMI disappoints with 51.5 points – USD

Another miss on an important figure today: the ISM manufacturing PMI slides to 51.5 points, with the employment component hitting a round 50 points, reflecting a perfect balance between growth and contraction. While this serves as a hint for Friday’s NFP, it is important to remember that the services sector is by far the dominant one in the US.

The dollar is quite unexcited and is actually slightly higher against the euro.

Among the other components, new orders is down to 51.8 points and prices paid are up from rock bottom levels of 35 to 39 points.

The ISM Manufacturing PMI for March was expected to slide to 52.5 points, from 52.9 in February, reflecting weak growth in the manufacturing sector.

The USD managed to recover some of the losses that it suffered following the weak ADP NFP number. More coming

At the same time, construction spending was expected to show a slide of 0.1% in February after a fall of 1.1% in January. The actual number is indeed a drop of 0.1%. However, last month’s number is revised downwards to a fall of 1.1%.

Earlier, Markit’s final manufacturing PMI for March was upgraded to 55.7 points. Also Markit’s services PMI was strong. Nevertheless, ISM carries more weight in the US.

ADP Non-Farm Payrolls fell short: they showed a gain of 189K jobs in the private sector, worse than expected and below the 200K level that we got used to.

Tomorrow we have the jobless claims, but the ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (services) is published only after the BLS Non-Farm Payrolls, thus leaving more uncertainty regarding the release on Good Friday.

More: How High Can The USD Go? EUR/USD to 0.98 by year end – Barclays

Get the 5 most predictable currency pairs