Italy will not publish preliminary GDP figures for Q3. The euro-zone’s third largest economy will release only final numbers on December 21st, when markets dwindle down towards Christmas.
Why? They need to make a “series of revisions” for previous quarters. Will these revisions be to the downside? If so, the result for the third quarter could actually look better, as it will come on top of lower GDP in previous quarters.
But in any case of lower GDP numbers in earlier quarters or contraction in Q3 (as expected), Italy’s debt to GDP ratio will rise, and this is something you don’t want to tell the markets right now.
Italy’s 10 year bond yields are flirting with the “bailout barrier” level of 7% once again. Recent auctions have shown that the levels in the secondary markets turn into high prices that Italy pays in the primary markets – in bond auctions.
This report joins bad news coming from one of Italy’s largest banks, Unicredit. The bank is reportedly in negotiations with the ECB over easier access to funding.
The new government of Mario Monti, whether it consists only of technocrats or if it includes politicians, will have a very hard task to restore confidence.
Further reading: Spain’s Rajoy negotiated 100 billion euros of aid with MerkelGet the 5 most predictable currency pairs