Analysts at Nomura are forecasting a June employment rate of 2.3% for Japanese economy, a rise of 0.1pp m-o-m, following a sharp decline of 0.3pp in May to 2.2%.
Key Quotes
“The job openings-to-applicants ratio, which tends to lead the unemployment rate, remained high in May at 1.60x, up 0.01 m-o-m, but the employment conditions DI in the Consumer Confidence Index, another employment-related sentiment indicator, was 48.3 in June, with the recovery still weak following the sharp decline in April.”
“Although related indicators are going in different directions, when the unemployment rate has fallen sharply in the past, there has often been a rebound to a degree in the following month, and we therefore forecast a slight month-on-month rise in the unemployment rate for June.”
“We expect the job openings-to-applicants ratio for June to come in at 1.60x, flat versus May. The new job openings-to-applicants ratio, a leading indicator of the job openings-to-applicants ratio, fell for the second month in May to 2.34x, and new job openings also turned down with a fall of 2.8% m-o-m, suggesting that the tightening in labor supply-demand might have settled down.”
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