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Analysts at Nomura are forecasting a June employment rate of 2.3% for Japanese economy, a rise of 0.1pp m-o-m, following a sharp decline of 0.3pp in May to 2.2%.

Key Quotes

“The job openings-to-applicants ratio, which tends to lead the unemployment rate, remained high in May at 1.60x, up 0.01 m-o-m, but the employment conditions DI in the Consumer Confidence Index, another employment-related sentiment indicator, was 48.3 in June, with the recovery still weak following the sharp decline in April.”

“Although related indicators are going in different directions, when the unemployment rate has fallen sharply in the past, there has often been a rebound to a degree in the following month, and we therefore forecast a slight month-on-month rise in the unemployment rate for June.”

“We expect the job openings-to-applicants ratio for June to come in at 1.60x, flat versus May. The new job openings-to-applicants ratio, a leading indicator of the job openings-to-applicants ratio, fell for the second month in May to 2.34x, and new job openings also turned down with a fall of 2.8% m-o-m, suggesting that the tightening in labor supply-demand might have settled down.”