US weekly jobless claims dropped from 416K to 393K, within expectations of a drop to 392K. This improvement was overshadowed by the release of the first revision of Q3 GDP.
This big change should still be taken with a grain of salt to due to “Sandy” – the super-storm that struck the east coast of the US in late October, and still has an impact on many people. However, we are beginning to see a mean reversion in this indicator.
This is the third week in a row where the data is distorted. Before “Sandy” landed, numbers stood on around 370K. The first report that came out after the storm sent the number to 451K (after revision), followed by 416K and 393K now.
It’s important to note that a figure of 392K was also recorded in October, but it was due to some issues that caused a very low figure in the week beforehand.
The top limit for this indicator in recent months that weren’t affected by one time events was 388K. A return to a figure between 365K to 385K would mark a return to normal data. Any figure above or below this level in the next few weeks would still seem suspicious.
Only after a few weeks of normal data, changes could really be meaningful – either positive or negative.
Further reading: Comments by congressional leaders will dictate the direction of the currencies
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