“The key Japanese event in the week ahead will be the all-important October BoJ meeting (Wed),” note ING analysts.
“Our economists note that BoJ Governor, Haruhiko Kuroda, has been dropping hints about changes to BoJ policy. Kuroda has been sounding more positive about inflation, with core (ex-fresh food) inflation now at 1.0%. The elusive 2% level may still be the official target, but there is a sense that a more pragmatic ‘good enough’ rate of about 1% could pave the way for the BoJ to start tweaking its policy stance. We think that we may see more stealth tightening steps to come this week – and this could be mildly supportive for the yen.”
“With global markets still looking fairly fragile, the combination of a hawkish BoJ and sell-off in risky assets could be quite supportive for the yen. While USD/JPY could drift lower here towards 111.00-111.50 – we suspect that it’ll be other JPY crosses where we’ll see the greater price action (eg, EUR/JPY and AUD/JPY). The week ahead also sees Sep jobless rate (Mon) and Sep industrial production data (Tue).”