June FOMC: The hawks have their day – TDS


In view of analysts at TDS, the FOMC surprised in a hawkish direction with higher rates at the end of 2018 and 2019 than the March projections, on the back of a slightly better outlook for this year.

Key Quotes

“We similarly shift forward our expectations for one more rate hike this year, resulting in 25bp hikes in both September and December.”

“The FOMC also dropped much of its forward guidance, with Chair Powell emphasizing a mix of data dependence and continued gradual rate hikes in order to balance risks of persistently above- or below-target inflation. While we expect the US economy to continue to warrant additional tightening, we see a number of downside global risks on the horizon which may keep the Fed from hiking as quickly as the dot plot suggests for next year and beyond.”

FX: Despite a hawkish Fed, the USD retraced its initial gains, signaling that the USD may have neared an exhaustion point. The ball is in now in the ECB’s court.”

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