Analysts at Nomura offered their outlook for the key events ahead in the US session.
Key Quotes:
“Initial jobless claims:
Looking through weekly volatility, initial and continuing claims have remained low and point to continued labor market strength. We continue to expect low readings in the near term
Housing starts:
We expect housing starts to come in at 1220k in July, up 4.0% from 1173k in June (Consensus: +7.4% to 1260k). Despite an expected rebound, 1220k would be below the Q2 average of 1262k and could indicate slow growth in housing starts in the near term. While single-family building permits were up decently in June, that increase was concentrated in the South. The three other Census regions saw declines in single-family permits. In particular, the West saw continued softening in permits in recent months, possibly suggesting that improvement in starts will likely be slow. Housing starts continue to be inhibited by supply-side constraints such as skilled construction labor shortages and rising building material costs. Multifamily housing starts, which tend to be quite volatile, likely rebounded strongly after a 19.8% decline in June. However, building permits for multifamily structures declined for the third consecutive month in June. The recent soft readings point to some downside risk on multifamily housing starts. On permits, we only expect a modest 0.2% m-o-m increase to 1295k in July (Consensus: +1.4% to 1310k).
Philly Fed survey:
We forecast 21.0 for August Philly Fed survey, which would indicate continued healthy expansion in the regional manufacturing sector (Consensus: 22.0). Similar to the Empire State survey, escalation in trade tensions will likely wear on forward-looking indicators. The indices on current conditions will likely reflect continued steady momentum in the manufacturing sector and the broader economy. A sharp pickup in the new orders index in the previous month also suggests that positive momentum will likely carry on in August.
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