Lakshman Achuthan: The US is in Recession
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Lakshman Achuthan: The US is in Recession

The head of ECRI,  Lakshman Achuthan, stated that he believes that the United States is already in recession.

Talking on Bloomberg,  Achuthan restated that we will probably know that only at the end of the year. He mentions that the figures for the beginning of 2008 were significantly revised to the downside. Does Bernanke have the same view of the US economy?

Achuthan forecast a recession coming in Q1 or Q2. Mike Shedlock estimated that the recession probably began in June 2012.

Achuthan says:

  • The velocity of money is plunging
  • The stock market doesn’t reflect the economy
  • Signs are pointing to a downturn

Recent GDP figures have shown that the US economy continued growing at a slow pace in Q1 and Q2. According to ISM’s PMIs, the services sector is still enjoying growth while manufacturing is experiencing a slow contraction.

Does the Fed also think that the US is already in recession? Acting today and announcing QE3 when yields are low could show that the Fed sees a much darker picture than everybody else sees.

However, QE3 is far from certain.


Yohay Elam

Yohay Elam

Yohay Elam: Founder, Writer and Editor I have been into forex trading for over 5 years, and I share the experience that I have and the knowledge that I've accumulated. After taking a short course about forex. Like many forex traders, I've earned a significant share of my knowledge the hard way. Macroeconomics, the impact of news on the ever-moving currency markets and trading psychology have always fascinated me. Before founding Forex Crunch, I've worked as a programmer in various hi-tech companies. I have a B. Sc. in Computer Science from Ben Gurion University. Given this background, forex software has a relatively bigger share in the posts.