As we eagerly await the ECB’s rate decision and the Mario Draghi’s show, opinion polls in France still matter. After the dust settles from Draghi, it will be back to normal, the new normal in Europe which is the French Presidential Elections.
For quite some time, extreme-right candidate Marine Le Pen led opinion polls in the first round. The question was: who will make it to second place and thus the second round: Macron or Fillon.
As center-right Fillon insists on fighting on despite his scandals, centrist Macron gains ground. In the second round polls, both beat Le Pen. However, if Macron already tops the first round, the momentum will be greater.
The daily OpinionWay poll shows Marine Le Pen at 26%, Macron at 25% and Fillon at 21%, unchanged from yesterday and within the margin of error. Other polls show similar numbers, but some show Macron on top.
In the second round, the gap is growing: from 60% to 40% two days ago to 62:38 yesterday and 64:36 now.
Is it time to buy the euro? At the moment, EUR/USD trades steadily at 1.0560, awaiting Draghi.
More: ECB Preview: acknowledging reality or playing it down?
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