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The ANZ Global Lead Index (GLI) and Growth Trackers suggest momentum has passed its peak, according to analysts at ANZ.

Key Quotes

“Trade disputes between the US and its main trading partners are not being resolved quickly and are becoming more ingrained – raising downside growth risks.”

“US core inflation has returned to target and is trending gradually higher with firmer wage growth.  Elsewhere core inflation remains below target and subdued. Higher oil prices and tariffs will feed through into  higher headline inflation in the short term, but these developments are effectively taxing growth so could be disinflationary longer term.”

“Financial conditions remain accommodative. We expect the Fed to continue on its path of gradual normalisation. Other central banks are slowly turning towards normalising.”