Market pricing for Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) implies only a near-zero chance of easing on 12 February, with a terminal rate of 0.83% (RBNZ OCR currently at 1.0%), according to Westpac analysts.
The expectations for additional easing in February fell sharply over the last two months, courtesy of the central bank’s surprise decision to keep rates steady in November and due to easing of US-China trade tensions.
That said, markets are still pricing over a 60% chance of one cut by RBNZ this year. The odds may rise further if the coronavirus outbreak weighs over growth, as fears by New Zealand’s Treasury.
The RBNZ shocked markets with a 50 basis point rate in August 2019 and has kept the benchmark rate unchanged at a record low of 1% ever since.
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