Philippe Dauba-Pantanacce, senior economist at Standard Chartered, suggests that political risk has become a dominant market driver as it spreads across multiple geographical and political contexts.
Key Quotes
“Whereas political risk was traditionally confined mostly to frontier- or emerging-market analysis, it is now a factor in assessing all types of markets, including developed ones. This phenomenon has been evident since the GFC and has gained further momentum in recent years.”
“Political risk, which often has economic repercussions, manifests itself in various forms; popular protests are one of the most common. This year’s Hong Kong protests are emblematic of the increasing power and impact of protest movements across the globe – they took many by surprise and have led to policy change, economic repercussions, and market volatility.”
“Protests have increased in frequency and power in recent years, bringing about regime change (for example, Tunisia in 2011) or economic policy changes (France’s ‘yellow vests’ in 2018-19); in the case of Syria in 2011-12, they presaged armed conflict.”
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