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Analysts at ANZ suggest that more slowing in global industrial momentum is likely but this story is in stark contrast to the end of last year/start of this year when our indicator was well above trend.

Key Quotes

“Although there has been a moderate bounce in global trade recently, our lead indicators suggest that this is likely to prove to be a ‘dead cat’ bounce.”

“G3 core inflation pressures are intensifying as wages lift amid diminishing slack in labour markets. That said, outside the US core inflation remains below central bank targets.”

“The US Fed isn’t far from neutral, and increasingly the talk is about how much the Fed may need to take the fed funds rate past neutral. With US financial conditions still very stimulatory, the Fed is unlikely to be perturbed by recent market volatility.”