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Ratings agency Moody’s take on global growth, rising geopolitical and trade tensions between the US and China, and USMCA is crossing the wires via Reuters:

  • Global economic growth will slow in 2019 and 2020 to a little under 2.9%, from an estimated 3.3% in 2018 and 2017.
  • The slowdown in global trade will hurt not only on growth in the US and China but also in open economies such as Japan, Korea, Germany.
  • Growth in advanced economies will slow but remain solid in 2019, while G20 emerging markets growth will remain weak.
  • Expects trade and geopolitical frictions between the US and China will likely persist for some time.
  • Expects trade, geopolitical frictions between the US and China will weigh on global trade growth and will reshape trade flows and supply chains.
  • USMCA will be ratified in 2019, with agreement on rules of origin, conflict resolution, agriculture, and government procurement.