NFP Preview: Low estimates to be easy to surpass and a trigger for dollar gains

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Expectations for February’s Nonfarm Payrolls, published on Friday, March 5, at 13:30 GMT are low and could be too low. In that case, the dollar has room to rise, according to FXStreet’s Analyst Yohay Elam.

Key quotes

“Economists have been too optimistic on Nonfarm Payrolls figures in the past three months, including December’s loss of jobs. As the NFP is notoriously hard to estimate, perhaps those surveyed will now err on the side of caution and are lowering their initial forecasts, resulting in 182,000 seen on the calendar.”

“The dollar has room to rise in case of a figure that only meets estimates with 182,000. A surge of over 250,000 would already serve as a bigger booster. Markets would assume that quick hiring even before the reopening means a rapid return to normality.”

“With expectations realistically lower than 182,000, a meager increase of fewer than 100,000 jobs would serve to push the greenback lower. It would vindicate the Fed’s cautious approach and imply lower rates and more bond-buying for longer.” 

“Anything between 100,000 to around 150,000 could be seen as within estimates.”

 

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