NFP Reaction in EUR/USD and Similarity to Dec ’09


A quick look into the NFP numbers from December 2009 revels an interesting pattern.  At that time expectation was for loss 120K jobs but number came out a loss only of 11K.  This result was far better than expected and euro fell sharply while stocks rallied. This is the same reaction that we see today.  In fact, I have an overlay chart from that time. You will notice that stocks then moved sideways or even up, while  the euro was falling sharply for the next 6 monhts.

Will history repeat itself!? You can ignore it or you may not. But my charts today are telling me »Don’t Buy Euro«, and »We are Too High to Invest in Stocks«!

Euro –S&P relationship in Dec 2009 and later

EUR/USD vs SP Dec 2009

EUR/USD vs SP Dec 2009 - Click image to enlarge

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March 2012

EUR/USD vs S&P 2012

EUR/USD vs S&P 2012 - Click image to enlarge

Guest post by Gregor Horvat

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About Author

Grega Horvat Grega is based in Slovenia and has been involved in markets since 2003. He is the owner of Ew-Forecast, but before that he was working for Capital Forex Group and His feature articles have been published on,, Action forex, Forex TV, Istockanalyst, ForexFactory,,, etc. He recently won the award on for Best Forex Analysis in 2016. At Ew-forecast he helps clients and educates them about the Elliott wave principle and how to label and track unfolding patterns in real time. His approach to the markets is mainly technical. He uses a lot of different methods when analyzing the markets such as candlestick patterns, MA, technical indicators etc. His specialty, however, is Elliott Wave Theory which could be very helpful especially if you know how to use it in combination with other tools/indicators. EW-Forecast To be involved in the market effectively, you need the right guidance and resources, and our team can help you to achieve that. Our team is providing advanced informations about Elliott Wave theory in real time. The Elliott Wave Principle gives you a method for identifying the behavior of the markets and at what points the market is most likely to turn. We help new traders who are interested in Elliott Wave theory to understand it correctly. We are doing our best to explain our views as simple as possible with educational goal, because knowledge itself is power!


  1. Hi, I ask, where and how data can make news and let the chart, my email is in my opinion I do that.

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