The US dollar gives in to pressure and falls across the board – with serious breakouts, including in EUR/USD. This time it isn’t only risk aversion: also the Japanese Yen falls, and the correlation between the two safe haven currencies is broken. US Dollar index is in the lowest levels in a year. Only the British Pound didn’t break technical barriers and may bounce back down.
The Australian dollar began with a small breakout on Friday. It passed 0.85. AUD/USD is now at 0.8625. The breakout is certainly confirmed. The kiwi followed with a breakout above 0.69 on Monday. NZD/USD is now at 0.6979.
The most annoying range trading currency pair is the world’s most popular one: EUR/USD. The breakout of 1.4444 this morning marks the dollar’s fall. EUR/USD now trades at 1.4489.
The dollar’s fall can be seen in the US dollar index, that is back to the levels of September 2008, at the height of the crisis. On its way down, the US dollar index broke the previous bottom that was reached at the beginning of August. It now stands at 77.40.
Yen Correlation broken
During the crisis, dollar weakness was at times the result of risk appetite. In these cases, the Japanese Yen would suffer as well. I had recommended trading the Yen crosses in such times, since the Yen would weaken alongside the dollar.
But this time it’s broken: USD/JPY falls as well, reaching deep lows of 92.09, still above the support line at 91.73.
USD/CAD is now well under the support line of 1.08, trading at 1.0685. USD/CHF broke support and is at a YTD low of 1.0476.
Pound Left Behind
Although the British Pound is also making a very nice move upwards, it’s still far enough from the resistance line of 1.6660. GBP/USD moved today about 200 pip up to 1.6550, but is still about a 100 pips short of breaking. When this trend will reversed, the British Pound has more room to fall than other currencies that did make the breakout.
I’ll keep on following the events this long awaited breakout. All the quotes were made during the time of writing.
For a look forward on the week’s events, read the Forex Weekly Outlook.Get the 5 most predictable currency pairs