Early expectations stood on a modest gain of around 90K, and no change in the unemployment rate, which stood on 7.9% in October (before revisions). The BLS said there was no impact from Sandy. However, revisions may come next month. This is the lowest unemployment rate since December 2008, but it also rides on a drop in the participation rate. Revisions are to the downside this time.
EUR/USD was trading around 1.29 before the release. USD/JPY around 82.30. USD/JPY leaping after the release, EUR/USD falling, but has support at 1.2880. Support is holding at the moment
Update: Analysis – Ben Bernanke Will Not Be Impressed by the NFP Report – Expect More QE
The details (updating):
- Non-Farm Payrolls: 146K
- Participation Rate: Down to 63.6%, from 63.8%.
- Unemployment Rate: 7.7%
- Revisions: To the downside this time: -49K .October revised from 171K to 138K (-33K), and September from +148K to 132K (-16K). Taking the revisions into account, a net of 97K jobs were added – not too far from economists’ estimates.
- Private Sector NFP: +147K (ADP showed +118K).
- Real Unemployment Rate (U-6): Down to 14.4% from 14.6%.
- Employment to population ratio: Slides from 58.8% to 58.7% – Ben Bernanke is also watching this figure.
- Average Hourly Earnings: +0.2%, as expected.
Background
October was great: The previous report was excellent: a gain of 171K jobs + significant revisions that added no less than 84K jobs. In addition, the participation rate rose to 63.8%, showing that the rise in the unemployment rate was mostly due to the fact that more people joined the work force.
November is Sandy: For this release, expectations were low due to a weaker indicators: ADP stood on 118K jobs gains (last time was 157K), while the employment components of the ISM PMIs were low: manufacturing was at the lowest level since 2009 and the more important services sector saw a drop to just above 50 points – very slow growth.
In addition, there was fear that the data was distorted due to super-storm Sandy, making every number released today a bit suspicious.
Further reading: US recession already in play? One lone voice continues insisting
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