Non-Farm Payrolls: +165K, +155K Expected

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The BLS was expected to show a gain of 155K jobs in the US Non-Farm Payrolls report for April 2013. The unemployment rate was expected to stand at 7.6%, which was the level for March (before revisions).

Towards the release, EUR/USD was still digesting the ECB rate decision made yesterday

The Details

  • Non-Farm Payrolls: +165K
  • Participation Rate:  63.3% (63.3% last month– the worst since 1979)
  • Unemployment Rate: 7.5% (last month 7.6% before revisions)
  • Revisions: +114K. Last month saw revisions of -61K.
  • Private Sector NFP: +73K (Last month:+95K)
  • Real Unemployment Rate (U-6): 14.1 (previous: 13.8%) – big fall.
  • Employment to population ratio: 58.6%  (previous: 58.6%)
  • Average Hourly Earnings: 0.2%% versus +0.2% expected.
  • Average workweek: 34.4 hours (Last month: 34.6 hours).

Background

After a good start to the year in terms of economic indicators, the picture has changed, with quite a few disappointments in recent months. Last month’s Non-Farm Payrolls was undoubtedly a weak report, with gains of only 88K jobs. Another significant warning sign came from the initial GDP report: the economy grew at annual pace of  only 2.5% in Q1 2013 – the strong start wasn’t that strong. Contrary to previous reports, this one lacked one of the most leading indicators: the ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI. The services sector is the vast majority of the US economy, and the employment component in this report tends to be well correlated with the NFP.

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About Author

Dan Blystone is founder of TradersLog.com - a website that focuses on technical and fundamental analysis of the financial markets, and also features a forum and chatroom. Originally from London and now based in Chicago, Dan was previously a professional futures trader. He worked on the floor of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange in the currencies and the S&P pit, later traded Eurex's bund futures, and most recently traded the US 10 year note futures. Having also worked at ABN AMRO's interbank desk in Chicago, Dan has a keen interest in the world of forex trading. Dan's new forex site is FX Examiner

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