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A slight disappointment in the US NFP, but it doesn’t seem to bother the dollar. The US gained 215K jobs. The unemployment rate is at 5.3% as expected and wages are +0.2% m/m as expected.

USD is stronger, less so against the yen. Update: we are seeing a second round of dollar buying.

The US was expected to report a gain of around 225K jobs in July. The unemployment  rate was predicted to remain  unchanged at 5.3% and average hourly earnings carried expectations for a rise of 0.2% of m/m.

Currencies remained tense towards the publication. — lots more coming —

Data (updated)

  • Non-Farm Payrolls:  215K  (exp. +225K, previously 223K  before revisions)
  • Participation Rate: 62.6%  (62.6% last month )
  • Unemployment Rate: 5.3%  (exp.5.3%,  last month 5.3% before revisions)
  • Revisions: +14K.  (-60K last month)
  • Average Hourly Earnings: +9.2% m/m, +2.1% y/y  (exp. +0.2% m/m, last month 0% m/m, 2.0% y/y)
  • Private Sector: 210K  (ADP showed only +185K).
  • Real Unemployment Rate (U-6): 10.4%  (previous: 10.5%).
  • Employment to population ratio: 59.3%  (previous: 59.3%)
  • Average  workweek: 34.6  (last month: 34.5).

Analysis and currency reaction (updated)

Update: The dollar is  slightly lower across the board, but nothing of note.

  • EUR/USD traded around 1.0930, basically maintaining its range.
  • GBP/USD was at 1.5520, still suffering the BOE blow.
  • USD/JPY traded around 124.70, shy of 125.
  • USD/CAD was around 1.31, off the highs and awaiting its own employment report.
  • AUD/USD traded around 0.7380. The Aussie struggled to rise despite positive Australian news..
  • NZD/USD  was around 0.6565


Data leading up to the publication was leaning to the upside.  The very strong ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI, the  good ISM manufacturing PMI and solid jobless claims beat the poor ADP.

In the last decision, the Fed left the door open for a rate hike in September but made it clear that it all depends on the data. Some members said that  if we get OK NFPs now and in September, a hike is baked in, but not all share the same opinion.

The preview:  EUR/USD: Trading the US Non-Farm Payrolls