The US was expected to gain around 215K jobs in June after +217K in May (revised now to 224K). The unemployment rate was predicted to remain unchanged at 6.3%. Expectations might have actually been a bit higher after the strong ADP data. At the time of the release, the ECB president is holding his press conference, making EUR/USD trading very exciting.
- Non-Farm Payrolls: 288K (exp. +214K, May saw +217K)
- Participation Rate: 62.8% (62.8% last month )
- Unemployment Rate: 6.1% , (exp. 6.3%, May: 6.3% before revisions)
- Revisions: +29K(April from 282K to 304K and May from 217K to 224K) –6K last month)
- Private Sector NFP: +262K (ADP showed a gain of +281K jobs).
- Real Unemployment Rate (U-6): 12.1% (previous: 12.2%).
- Employment to population ratio: 59% (previous: 58.9%)
- Average Hourly Earnings: 0.2%- (exp. +0.2%, May: 0.2%).
- Average workweek: 34.5 (last month: 34.5).
The US has been gaining more than 200K jobs or more since February and this winning streak was expected to continue in June, making it the best first 6 months of job gains since 1998. The ADP report raised expectations, as did the strong Markit Non-Services PMI for June. The parallel ISM figure is only released after the event, today at 14:00 GMT.
The Fed is on a preset course to taper bond buys, and QE is expected to fully end in October. The big question is when interest rates will rise. Markets expect them to move in mid 2015, but it could come earlier.
At the same time, the ECB is also making its decision.