Non-Farm Payrolls Finally Great – No Double Dip?


Non-Farm Payrolls exceeded expectations and fell by only 54K, nearly half of early expectations. The unemployment rate rose from 9.5% to 9.6% as expected. The initial reaction was a drop of EUR/USD but it immediately rose back up. USD/JPY is going in one direction – up.

The important part of the release was the the private sector figure. Here, a gain of 67,00 was published, also significantly better than 40,000 that was predicted. And there was more good news:

A revision of July’s figure showed that Non-Farm Payrolls fell by only 54K instead of 131K initially reported. Also the private sector’s number was revised in July from 71K to 107K. All the numbers are significantly better than expected.

EUR/USD traded around 1.2840 before the release. It then fell to 1.2810, leaped to 1.2875 and fell back again. It’s currently looking for a direction. We could see a relief rally on EUR/USD and stocks.

The Japanese yen, that has a low yield and is also a “safe haven” currency fell sharply. USD/JPY jumped from 84.40 to 85.20 after the release – no choppy trading – just one direction – up, according to scenario #2 in the Non-Farm Payrolls preview.

As written in the preview, this publication of Non-Farm Payrolls is a test for the fears of a double-dip recession. Did this calm the markets? As always, analysts will debate over this for some time. A recovery in jobs is the key to recovery.

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About Author

Yohay Elam – Founder, Writer and Editor I have been into forex trading for over 5 years, and I share the experience that I have and the knowledge that I’ve accumulated. After taking a short course about forex. Like many forex traders, I’ve earned a significant share of my knowledge the hard way. Macroeconomics, the impact of news on the ever-moving currency markets and trading psychology have always fascinated me. Before founding Forex Crunch, I’ve worked as a programmer in various hi-tech companies. I have a B. Sc. in Computer Science from Ben Gurion University. Given this background, forex software has a relatively bigger share in the posts.


  1. Hi, an unrelated issue.
    Have you noticed that today Friday 03/09 the gbp usd price dropped 2 mins before announcement at 04.28 .
    Same thing on gbp usd at 04.28 01/09.

    Huge drops 2 mins prior to announcement , twice now……….seems like some insider with information to me.

    You may like to open a discussion on this item.

  2. Bob, I also heard the rumor about the inside information from other sources as well. There could be something there, but I haven’t got more than a rumor at the moment.

    Newshunter, this is result of the ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI that fell to 51.5. While this result was significantly worse than expected, I’m surprised by the strong reaction as well.

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  5. Newshunter on

    Thanks for your explain, when I heard JPY was still strong after NFP news, I immediately closed my BUY USD/JPY position, and saved my game…

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