Some American figures have shown improvement in the past month. Also economists have expressed optimism. This should be reflected in the upcoming Non-Farm Payrolls? April’s NFP could be better than expected. The dollar will feel it.
There are several economic indicators that show that the American economy is improving, or at least stabilized. Hope for America and the whole world is also expressed by economists and politicians
- Unemployment Claims: This figure is directly linked to the Non-Farm Payrolls. It has shown improvement, by falling from the 660K levels to around 630K. This is a positive sign indeed.
- American Housing is off the bottom: Since mid March, American housing data has shown improvement. This is seen in several parameters: Building Permits, Existing Home Sales, New Home Sales and more figures. The real estate market began the crisis with the subprime crisis.
- Larry Summers: Obama’s senior advisor, Larry Summers, said that the bottom of this recession is already behind us. What does he know that we don’t know?
- G20 summit promises hope: The positive outcome of the G20 summit, and the public pledge of funds to the IMF spurred hope.
- Stock Market Rally: The stock markets are rallying for many weeks. Apart from the positive atmosphere, this might also push employers to hire more.
- Obama’s stimulus package: Despite being dollar negative, Barack Obama’s stimulus plan is already out there. One of the plans primary goals is creating jobs.
- G7 Optimism: The finance ministers of the Group of Seven concluded their recent meeting with hope that a recovery is getting closer. Yet another positive sign.
- More: Core Durable Goods Orders, CB Consumer Confidence, ISM Manufacturing PMI, and other various PMI figures have shown good signs. Only GDP was bad, but that belongs to the previous quarter.
So, all in all, there are lots of reasons why American Non-Farm Employment Change should be better this time. Current expectations are for a drop of 615K jobs in April 2009, slightly better than last time’s drop of 663K.
With all these positive signs, I believe that the number will be much lower than 600K, somewhere around half a million.
I’m also optimistic about the Unemployment Rate. Current predictions are for a rise from 8.5% to 8.9%. I think it won’t rise that much.
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