Weak jobs report: only 261K gains and the revisions do not improve the mood. Worse off, wages are flat m/m and only 2.4% y/y. The unemployment rate is down but only due to a fall in the participation rate. All in all, a not-so-impressive report.
The US dollar is down across the board on the reality check that wage numbers provide.
NFP Live Blog – as it happened
Here is a live blog of the NFP
October 2017 NFP Data (updated)
- Non-Farm Payrolls: 261K (exp. +310K, last -33K before revisions)
- Average Hourly Earnings 0% m/m, 2.4% y/y (exp. +0.2% m/m, last month 0.5% m/m, 2.9% y/y)
- Revisions: 90K in total (-38K last time).
- Participation Rate:62.7% (63.1% last month )
- Unemployment Rate: 4.1% (exp.4.2%, last month 4.2%)
- Private Sector: 252K (ADP showed 235K).
- Real Unemployment Rate (U-6): 7.9% (previous: 8.3%).
- Employment to population ratio: 60.2% (previous: 60.4%)
- Average workweek: 34.4 (last month: 34.4).
A separate report showed that the US trade balance came out at a deficit of 43.5 billion, similar to expectations which stood at 43.3 billion.
We still have the US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI and the factory orders at 14:00.
NFP Currency Reaction
- EUR/USD was very stable around 1.1650, between support at 1.1620 and resistance around 1.1670. Early in the week, we learned that euro-zone growth is robust while inflation is low. The pair jumped towards 1.17 but then slipped back to 1.1660.
- GBP/USD was trading around 1.3080, attempting to recover from the BOE’s dovish hike. The pair flirted with 1.31 but retreats.
- USD/JPY was flirting with 114. Attempts to break above 114.50 did not succeed. We are now under 114.
- USD/CAD was around 1.2830. Canada publishes its own jobs report which was excellent. The pair is down to 1.2750.
- AUD/USD was struggling around 0.7665. Support is at 0.7640. The pair advances some 15 pips.
The US was expected to report a big rebound in jobs: 310K, compensating for the loss of jobs in September, a hurricane-related distortion in the data. Wages were predicted to advance by 0.2% m/m. The unemployment rate was forecast to remain unchanged at 4.2%.
The US dollar was looking good ahead of the publication.Get the 5 most predictable currency pairs