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Weak jobs report: only 261K gains and the revisions do not improve the mood. Worse off, wages are flat m/m and only 2.4% y/y. The unemployment rate is down but only due to a fall in the participation rate. All in all, a not-so-impressive report.

The US dollar is down across the board on the reality check that wage numbers provide.

NFP Live Blog – as it happened

Here is a live  blog of the NFP

October 2017 NFP Data (updated)

  • Non-Farm Payrolls: 261K  (exp. +310K, last -33K before revisions)
  • Average Hourly Earnings 0% m/m, 2.4% y/y  (exp. +0.2% m/m, last month 0.5% m/m, 2.9% y/y)
  • Revisions: 90K in total  (-38K last time).
  • Participation Rate:62.7%      (63.1% last month )
  • Unemployment Rate: 4.1%  (exp.4.2%,  last month 4.2%)
  • Private Sector: 252K  (ADP showed 235K).
  • Real Unemployment Rate (U-6): 7.9%  (previous: 8.3%).
  • Employment to population ratio: 60.2%  (previous: 60.4%)
  • Average  workweek: 34.4  (last month: 34.4).

A separate report showed that the US trade balance came out at a deficit of 43.5 billion, similar to expectations which stood at 43.3 billion.

We still have the US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI and the factory orders at 14:00.

NFP Currency Reaction

  • EUR/USD was very stable around 1.1650, between support at 1.1620 and resistance around 1.1670. Early in the week, we learned that euro-zone growth is robust while inflation is low. The pair jumped towards 1.17 but then slipped back to 1.1660.
  • GBP/USD was trading around 1.3080, attempting to recover from the BOE’s dovish hike. The pair flirted with 1.31 but retreats.
  • USD/JPY was flirting with 114. Attempts to break above 114.50 did not succeed. We are now under 114.
  • USD/CAD was around 1.2830. Canada publishes its own jobs report which was excellent. The pair is down to 1.2750.
  • AUD/USD was struggling around 0.7665. Support is at 0.7640. The pair advances some 15 pips.

The US was expected to report a big rebound in jobs: 310K, compensating for the loss of jobs in September, a hurricane-related distortion in the data. Wages were predicted to advance by 0.2% m/m. The unemployment rate was forecast to remain unchanged at 4.2%.

The US dollar was looking good ahead of the publication.

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