The US jobs report for October is due out at 13:30 GMT and as we get closer to the release time, here are the forecast of economists and researchers of five major banks regarding the upcoming employment data. US Nonfarm Payrolls are set to show an increase of around 600,000 jobs in October, down from 661,000 in September as the pace of job restoration is slowing down but remains robust. The Unemployment Rate is set to fall from 7.9% to 7.7%.
Ahead of the data, the US dollar is attempting a recovery, clawing back some ground against major currencies, yet remains around the March lows against the yen.
RBC Economics
“We have penciled in a 1.5 M increase in US jobs in October, up from the 661K gain in September. But that will still leave over 9 M people out of work relative to pre-shock February levels.”
NBF
“Hiring should have continued apace in the month judging from a decline in continuing claims between the September and October reference periods, a development that may have translated into a 700K increase in payrolls. The household survey is expected to show a similar progression in employment which would be consistent with just a 0.1% decrease in the unemployment rate to 7.8%, assuming the participation rate rose three ticks in the month.”
CIBC
“Hiring likely slowed to 570K, while a partial reversal in the drop in the participation rate from the prior month could have limited the drop in the unemployment rate to one tick, leaving it at 7.8%. That would leave employment still 7% below February’s level, and 10 M fewer Americans employed. The still respectable employment gain is also consistent with the rise in the job openings rate in recent months.”
TDS
“Payrolls probably rose fairly strongly by pre-COVID standards, but with the pace slowing again, and the level still down around 10 M since February. (The 661K rise in Sep followed 1.5 M in Aug, 1.8 M in Jul and 4.8 M in Jun). We are assuming a 200K decline in government payrolls, due to an unwinding of census hiring as well as another drop in state and local employment.”
Westpac
“Employment growth slowed dramatically in September, while still remaining very strong versus history. An additional step down is anticipated in October at around 570K, as initial claims continue to point to significant churn in the labour market; support from fiscal policy ebbs; and COVID-19 risks mount yet again. Softer momentum in employment, combined with a likely rise in participation, is anticipated to more or less stabilise the unemployment rate at 7.8% in October, though there are clear risks in both directions. The historic scale of labour market slack will weigh on hourly earnings in October, and likely for many years to come. A second successive gain of 0.1% is expected in the month.”
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