TD Securities analysts suggest that the Norges Bank meets on Thursday to decide its next policy move and the meeting is one without an accompanying MPR.
Key Quotes
“We expect to gain few insights into their view on how the economy is evolving beyond a cursory assessment of incoming data.”
“Key data releases since their March meeting show neutral and downside surprises relative to the Norges Bank’s March forecasts.”
“Key to this month’s meeting will be how the Norges Bank refines guidance on the timing of its next rate hike.”
“The Norges Bank has tended to foreshadow hikes by about 4 meetings, with precise monthly timing given two meetings ahead of the hike. Following this pattern, we could see the Norges Bank make the timing of its next hike more precise not at this meeting, but at its June meeting. However it is likely they shorten the “half-year” guidance to something like “after the summer” or “in the coming months”. That said, there is a risk that the Norges Bank chooses to signal a June hike precisely.”
“While we agree with the Norges Bank’s guidance that rates will rise sometime in the next half year, the timing of such a hike remains uncertain.”
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