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Analysts at ANZ note that New Zealand’s permanent and long-term net migration monthly inflows lifted by 170 to 5,090 in May (on a seasonally adjusted basis), as arrivals partially rebounded their April dip and departures continued to rise.

Key Quotes

“Despite the monthly rise, the cycle is continuing to trend down gradually. The annual net inflow is now sitting a little above 66,000, down from more than 67,000 in April and its peak of 72,400 in July last year.”

Permanent and long-term arrivals rose by 270 to 10,780 (sa), remaining below the 12-month average of around 10,900.”

Monthly permanent and long-term departures rose 100 to 5,690 (sa), above their 12-month average of 5,300, owing to a higher New Zealand citizen departures.”

Short-term visitor arrivals lifted 2.7% m/m (sa),  and were up 5.2% y/y (sa), following a softer print last month.”

Strong migration-led population growth has been a key driver of economic activity this cycle and with net migration well and truly past its peak, the impetus to GDP growth is shrinking.”