NZD/USD: faring up despite trade war angst

• 0.6780 comes as next downside target meeting the lows of mid-Nov 2017.
• Traders are more concerned about the pending RBNZ.

NZD/USD has been robust in light of the pending threats of a global trade war and prospects of a global recession. However, the pair dropped from 0.6920 to 0.6885 and currently trades at 0.6889 at the time of writing, supported by the rising 100-hr SMA at 0.6885.  

NZD/USD traders are more concerned about the pending RBNZ meeting this week where, although no change in message from the RBNZ in expected, the outlook for the OCR is what matter most, and that is to say, the RBNZ will be scrutinised for hints as to whether they will be lifting rates in the summer of next year of the autumn.  

RBNZ  will wait for inflation to rise

“The RBNZ will wait for inflation to rise in a consistent way, and this will take some time in this environment,” according to analysts at ANZ who argued that there are risks on both sides of the ledger:

“On balance, we think cost pressures – especially wage costs – will push inflation higher and that the OCR will eventually rise. That said, with forecast hikes sitting very late in the economic cycle, there are decent odds they may not happen at all.”

NZD/USD levels

Support is located at 0.6820 while resistance is located at 0.6980. 0.6780 comes as next downside target meeting the lows of mid-Nov 2017.  On the upside, albeit not favoured, above 0.6980 lies the 50-D SMA at  0.7002 and then 0.7060 guarding space en route to 0.7440 as the January tops on the wide.