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  • NZD/USD takes the bids after a big positive beat of the NZ Retail Sales.
  • New Zealand data crossed downbeat forecasts amid recovery from coronavirus-led activity restrictions in Q3.
  • Trading sentiment struggles amid fears of a brake to the Fed’s emergency lending programs, covid resurgence.
  • November month PMIs become the key data, risk catalysts shouldn’t be ignored.

NZD/USD rises to 0.6930 during the initial hour of Monday’s Asian trading. The pair began the week on a back-foot while printing a 20-pips gap-down opening to 0.6918. However, the recently flashed New Zealand Retail Sales for the third quarter (Q3) helped the quote to fill the difference from Friday’s closing near 0.6940.

NZ Retail Sales favors RBNZ’s bullish bias…

New Zealand (NZ) Retail Sales for Q3 overcome the previous quarter’s -14.6% QoQ contraction while rising 28.00%. Further, the Core Retail Sales also jumped above -13.7% previous declines to 24.1% QoQ.

Read: New Zealand’s Retail Sales unexpectedly jumped 8.3% in Q3, NZD/USD bounces

The data offered additional positives to the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) policymakers who have been bullish off-late. Although the RBNZ Governor Adrian Orr cited fears of the global coronavirus (COVID-19) resurgence in his latest speech, the central banker turned down the negative rates while praising the Pacific economy for its performance to tame the pandemic at home.

Elsewhere, global risks remain depressed amid fears that the US Federal Reserve will have a limited capacity to battle the virus. US Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin recently recalled the $500 billion of funds with the Fed while indicating the term expiry. This triggered fears that the US central bank will be left with fewer resources and pushed Fed Chair Jerome Powell and company to resist the demands.

Additionally, the COVID-19 outbreak is worsening in the US and Europe. Wall Street Journal cites a reduction in the daily cases from the record high numbers but a sustained surge in the hospitalization keeps the deadly virus as the major fears for Americans.

Virus vaccines and treatments are battling the bears. Recently Regeneron’s Antibody treatment got a go from the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) for emergency use while Pfizer is up for the UK’s greenback by this weekend, as per the Telegraph. Also on the positive side could be the US President-elect Joe Biden’s firming up the grip on the American leadership.

Even so, global traders will pay close attention to the November month’s activity numbers for fresh impulse while also keeping an eye over the risk catalysts mentioned above.

Technical analysis

Unless declining back below the 0.6800 mark, comprising multiple highs flashed during the mid-2019 and September 2020, bulls are likely to keep the reins. In doing so, the 0.7000 psychological magnet can become their immediate target. However, a downside break of 10-day SMA, currently near 0.6880 can trigger intraday selling.


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