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NZD/USD picked up a strong bid post-RBNZ rate decision, as suggested by the bullish divergence of the 4-hour chart relative strength index (RSI) earlier today, and rose to 0.6828 – resistance of the trendline trending south from Feb. 1 and Feb. 5 highs.  

That trendline hurdle could be convincingly scaled if the RBNZ Governor Orr sounds less dovish-than-expected.  

A break above 0.6828 validate RSI’s bullish move above 50 on the 4-hour chart and open up upside toward the previous week’s high of 0.6906. That bull breakout, however, could be short-lived, if 10-year NZ-US yield spread remains at three-month lows near -0.59 basis points.

4-hour chart

Trend: cautiously bullish