NZD/USD Outlook – August 1-5

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Where will the kiwi stop? Another week provides another record. Labor Cost Index and Employment data are the most influential events this week. Here’s an outlook for the events in New Zealand, and an updated technical analysis for NZD/USD

Last week NZ business confidence increased for the 4th straight month to 47.6 amid improvement in the housing investment and employment sectors indicating a stronger economy and the RBNZ maintained rates at 2.50% in line with expectations.

NZD/USD daily chart with support and resistance lines on it. Click to enlarge:NZD USD Chart August 1 5 2011

  1. ANZ Commodity Prices: Monday, 1:00.New Zealand commodity prices slipped in June for the first time since August last year dropping 1.2% after 0.4% gain in the previous month. Fruit and beef prices dropped due to growing imports from theUS.
  2. Labor Cost Index: Monday, 22:45. The NZ Labor Cost Index rose by 0.4% in the first quarter following 0.6% gain in the 4th quarter of 2010 and below expectations of 0.6% rise. Wage gains were modest in past two years amid high jobless rate which was further hurt be theChristchurch earthquake in Feb. 22. A rise of 0.5% is predicted.
  3. Employment data: Wednesday, 22:45. Unemployment rate improved more than expected in the first quarter declining to 6.6% from 6.8% in the 4th quarter of 2010 showing a recovery process is underway after the Christchurch earthquake in February this year. Forecasts predicted unemployment rate to reach 6.7%. Moreover employment change increased by 1.4% after dropping 0.5% in the 4th quarter of 2010. Long term stability in the job market with lower unemployment will enable restoring consumer confidence and eventually consumer spending improving NZ economy. Unemployment rate is expected to drop to 6.5% while Employment change is expected to grow by 0.1%.

* All times are GMT.

NZD/USD Technical Analysis

The kiwi started off the week with trading under the 0.8675 resistance line (which was the previous peak). It then surged higher and closed at 0.8791, just below 0.88.

Technical levels from top to bottom:

For another week, a new record high pushes us higher. 0.88 is resistance, and it is very close. In uncharted territory, the round number of 0.90 is of importance, but the pair may stop before that line.

Below, the previous peak of 0.8675 is now support. It is closely followed by 0.8620, which was the lower border of the range the pair traded in before the leap.

Further support is at 0.8580,  but managed to play in both directions during July. The previous high of 0.8505 is another clear line of support, also switching roles.

It is followed by 0.8410 – a minor pivotal line.  0.83 became more distinctive a few weeks ago, by separating ranges (like the previous line), and remains of high importance. 0.8240 proved to be an important line of support.

The 81 line, followed by 0.8080 also provided resistance in the past, but is now support. once again. Although it is weaker now, it can be tested if the pair falls below the aforementioned 0.8240..

I remain bullish on NZD/USD.

While the kiwi is in overbought territory, it could enjoy another leg forward if positive quarterly employment numbers are released. This gave the pair a boost last time.

Here is why NZD/USD should get more attention.

Further reading:

Get the 5 most predictable currency pairs

About Author

Anat Dror – Senior Writer

I conceptualize, design and create multi-lingual websites. Apart from the technical work, my projects usually consist of writing content for these sites in English, French and Hebrew.

In the past, I have built, managed and marketed an e-learning center for language studies, including moderating a live community of students.

I’ve also worked as a community organizer

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