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A rate decision stands out in this week’s kiwi events. Here’s an outlook for the events in New Zealand and an updated technical analysis for NZD/USD.

NZD/USD chart with support and resistance lines marked. Click to enlarge:

New Zealand dollar forecast

The kiwi managed to close the week higher, despite weaker-than expected CPI. This will probably be reflected in the rate decision.

  1. NBNZ Business Confidence: Published on Wednesday at 3:00 GMT. A day before the rate decision, the central bank releases this important survey of 1500 businesses. It always rocks the kiwi. In the past 10 months, this index has been positive – indicating optimism, although it dropped last month. At 42.5 points, it’s predicted to edge up.
  2. Rate decision: Published on Wednesday at 21:00 GMT. Alan Bollard, the governor of the RBNZ, doesn’t have a reason to raise the rates. Retail sales disappointed, and the quarterly inflation we’ve seen last week rose by 0.4% – very modest. So, the Official Cash Rate will probably remain unchanged at 2.5%. Canada will probably raise the rates before New Zealand. The kiwi will move by the wording of the RBNZ Rate Statement which will provide an economic overview and perhaps hints for future policy.
  3. Trade Balance: Published on Wednesday at 22:45 GMT. New Zealand enjoys a surplus in its balance in the past two months. This surplus is expected to rise from 321 to 372 million, indicating growing exports.
  4. Building Consents: Published on Thursday at 22:45 GMT. This important housing figure, called building permits in other countries, jumped by 5.9% last month, following two negative months. A small rise is expected this time.

NZD/USD Technical Analysis

The kiwi traded between 0.7050, a new minor resistance line (added on last week’s outlook) and 0.7177, a safe distance from the strong resistance line of 0.72.

Looking down, stronger support is found at 0.70, a round number that already provided support in the past. Lower, 0.68 is another significant support line, last tested in February. Even lower, 0.6685 is in the distance.

Looking up, 0.7320 is the next resistance line, followed by 0.7440 which was tested for several days at the beginning of the year.

I am neutral on NZD/USD.

The weak CPI and the American recovery counter the rise in commodity prices – a rate hike will probably have to wait for some time. I see more range trading.

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