NZD/USD Outlook Jan. 30 – Feb. 3

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Building Consents and employment data are the major events this week. Here’s an outlook for the events in New Zealand, and an updated technical analysis for NZD/USD

Last week the Reserve Bank of New Zealand maintained its benchmark interest rate at 2.50% in light of ongoing uncertainty concerning global market conditions. Meanwhile Trade balance swung to surplus in December reaching NZ$338 million beating expectations for NZ$74 million deficit and providing positive news about the NZ economy.

Updates: The kiwi is falling together with other currencies as dark clouds settle over Greece once again. See how to trade New Zealand’s building consents with NZD/USD. The kiwi is very resilient towards the European debt crisis, and managed to keep its head high above 0.9250. The 2.1% rise in building consents certainly helps. There’s no rest for the kiwi, which was by far the best currency in January. NZD/USD continues higher and challenges 0.8340.

NZD/USD daily chart with support and resistance lines on it. Click to enlarge:NZD/USD Chart January 30 February 3 2012

  1. Building Consents: Monday, 21:45.New Zealand building consents declined by 6.4% to1,187 in November after gaining 10.7% in the previous month. The main cause for this drop is a 92% decline in South Island. Nevertheless the general condition of the housing market is positive.
  2. Employment data: Wednesday, 21:45.New Zealand’s labor market increased by 0.2% in the third quarter while unemployment rate rose unexpectedly to 6.6% from 6.5% in the second quarter. Analysts expected unemployment to drop to 6.4%. Nevertheless the growth in employment was driven by a larger number of full time positions.
  3. ANZ Commodity Prices: Thursday, 0:00.New Zealand commodity prices declined 0.8% to their lowest levels in a year due to drops in wool and skins. This reading followed 1.15 decline in the previous month.

* All times are GMT.

NZD/USD Technical Analysis

The kiwi started off the week with a fake break above 0.8110 (mentioned last week). The line returned to cap the pair until Bernanke sent it higher. After a struggle with the 0.8165 line, the pair managed to reach the next resistance at 0.8240, but couldn’t break higher.

Technical lines, from top to bottom:

We move to higher ground this time. 0.8765 was a high line during August and is close to the all time high. It’s followed by 0.8680 which was support on high ground.

0.8620 is close by and also was support on high ground during the summer. 0.8573 was a stubborn line of resistance during August 2011.

0.8505 was a peak on the way up during July. The 0.84 line separated ranges in August 2011, and earlier served as support when the kiwi traded higher.

0.8340 was a peak in September and is minor resistance. 0.8240 was a peak in October and also back in May 2011.  It proved its strength in January 2012.

It is followed by 0.8165 provided support for the pair at several occasions, last seen in October. Its role is weaker now. 0.8110 switched positions from support in August to resistance later on and is a minor line, now on the way down.

0.8070 was resistance in October and support beforehand.. It was also tested in January. The round number of 0.80 managed to cap the pair in November and remains of high importance, especially due to its psychological importance.

Another round number, 0.79, is now stronger resistance after capping a rise at the beginning of 2012. 0.7840 worked as cap for a range and earlier stopped the pair in October. It then became much stronger in December, holding the range. The pair approached in the last days of 2011, but couldn’t really challenge it.

0.7773 was the bottom border of a range at the beginning of 2012, and also in December. 0.77 provided support in December and is now minor support. 0.7637 was a swing low in September and provided its strength in December as a swing low. It is a still strong, after capping a recovery attempt in December.

0.7550 now has a stronger role after working as a very distinct line separating ranges. It had a similar role back in January. 0.7470 was the trough in October and worked as perfect support in December.

I am neutral on NZD/USD

Bernanke’s soft monetary policy certainly boosts the kiwi, which is a commodity currency that is less vulnerable to shocks. On the other hand, the kiwi has been rallying very strongly and is now in overbought territory. Any trouble in Europe could weaken it.

Further reading:

Get the 5 most predictable currency pairs

About Author

Anat Dror – Senior Writer

I conceptualize, design and create multi-lingual websites. Apart from the technical work, my projects usually consist of writing content for these sites in English, French and Hebrew.

In the past, I have built, managed and marketed an e-learning center for language studies, including moderating a live community of students.

I’ve also worked as a community organizer

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