The kiwi weakened against the U.S. dollar following the Greek debt crisis. This week, current account is the major market-mover. Here’s an outlook for the events in New Zealand, and an updated technical analysis for NZD/USD
The New Zealand dollar slipped to a three-week low against the U.S. dollar and against 14 of its 16 major counterparts following the Greek debt crisis and following the announcement of finance Minister Bill English claiming the kiwi’s strength was hurting the economy. Will this trend continue?
NZD/USD daily chart with support and resistance lines on it. Click to enlarge:
- Manufacturing Sales: Sunday, 22:45. New Zealand Manufacturing Activity rose 3.1% in the last quarter of 2010 following the 1.3% gain in the previous quarter. The Q1 reading could be problematic following the earthquake in February. Nevertheless in light of the rise in manufacturing activity during May, the 2nd quarter reading will be more optimistic.
- Visitor Arrivals: Monday, 22:45. The number of visitors arriving to New Zealand in March and April increased by 8% following 12% decrease in the previous month affected by the Christchurch earthquake on February 22. Another increase is expected.
- Current Account: Tuesday, 22:45. New Zealand Current-Account deficit widened to a 10-year-low following the earthquake reaching NZ$3.52 billion ($2.6 billion) deficit in the fourth quarter of 2010. Nevertheless a large surplus is expected in the first quarter amid huge amounts of reinsurance payments expected from the quake resulting in a foreseen current account surplus by the end of this year. Current-Account deficit is expected to increase gain to NZ$3.89 billion.
- Credit Card Spending: Wednesday, 3:00. New Zealand Apr Credit Card Spending improved in April by 6% after 1.5% gain in March indicating improvement in consumer spending. Further rise in spending is forecasted.
* All times are GMT.
NZD/USD Technical Analysis
At the beginning of the week, the New Zealand dollar rose higher, but met tough resistance at the 0.8215 line (mentioned last week). It then dropped sharply, finding support at the 0.7975 line, before recovering and rising to close above 81.
Technical levels from top to bottom:
The newall time high of 0.83 is now the top line. It is also a round number. Above this, it is uncharted territory. The previous all-time high of 0.8215 is still important just below, as it capped a recovery attempt just now.
The 81 line, which was also a line of resistance in the past, proved to be a good point of support just a few weeks ago. Although it is weaker now, it will be critical at the beginning of the week.The previous post crisis high of 0.7975 remains an important line, remaining very distinctive, separating ranges. The importance of this line was seen as the pair bounced off it.
100 pips lower, we meet 0.7875, which was support in 2010, and will be a line of support on a fall of the pair. 0.7825 is important support after capping the pair at the beginning of the year, and working as support twice in the past month. It’s somewhat weaker now.
0.7746 worked as support in November and as resistance in January and proved to be important support now. Further support is found at the 0.7655 peak seen in February.
0.7523 is a veteran resistance line, that worked as strong support in January and remains important. 0.74 was a line of support twice in during the fall and is the next line.
I am bearish on NZD/USD.
Further reading:
- For a broad view of all the week’s major events worldwide, read the USD outlook.
- For EUR/USD, check out the Euro to Dollar forecast.
- For the Japanese yen, read the USD/JPY forecast.
- For GBP/USD (cable), look into the British Pound forecast.
- For the Australian dollar (Aussie), check out the AUD to USD forecast.
- For USD/CAD (loonie), check out the Canadian dollar
- For the Swiss Franc, see the USD/CHF forecast.
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