NZD/USD Outlook – June 21-25

GDP is the key event in this week’s kiwi trading. Here’s an outlook for the events in New Zealand, and an updated technical analysis for NZD/USD, now in higher ground.

NZD/USD chart with resistance and support lines on it. Click to enlarge:

New Zealand saw another month of squeeze in retail sales. This doesn’t go hand in hand with other indicators that already led to a rate hike. The key economic indicator is published this week:

1. Credit Card Spending: Published on Tuesday at 3:00 GMT. This report by the central bank gives a good indicator on consumer spending and confidence. Spending increased in the past 6 months, hand in hand with the overall improvement. After a 1.9% rise last month, a smaller rise is predicted this time.
2. Current Account: Published on Tuesday at 22:45 GMT.  Although being a lagging figure, released almost a full quarter after the end of the reported quarter, this indicator tends to shake the kiwi. The deficit in the overall value of money, services and income flows increased to 3.5 billion in Q4 of 2009. Q1 of 2010 is expected to see a smaller deficit, or maybe even a small surplus.
3. GDP: Published on Wednesday at 22:45 GMT. The economy in New Zealand is improving. Three quarters of growth will probably be followed by a fourth one. The growth rate accelerated to 0.8% in Q4, and is now predicted to be slightly lower, 0.5%, similar to Australia’s squeeze in its growth rate.
4. Trade Balance: Published on Thursday at 22:45 GMT. This complements Tuesday’s release of the current account, by providing the difference in the value of goods (only goods) in the previous month. Here, New Zealand enjoys a growing surplus in the past four months. Last month’s 656 million surplus will probably be followed by a higher number – 767 million.

The kiwi’s first attempt to break above the round 0.70 resistance line failed, and it bounced back to the 0.6910 support line. Near the end of the week, the pair succeeded and after a bounce around 0.7080, NZD/USD closed at 0.7045.

0.7080 provides initial resistance for the kiwi. This is a new line that didn’t appear last week. It was also a line of support back in September. Above, 0.72 is a strong line of resistance, serving as such many times in the past.

Even higher, 0.7325 was the peak in April, before the fall and also in November, and is now the next strong line of resistance. Higher, 0.7440 is the year-to-date high.

Looking down below 0.70, 0.6910 is still a minor line of support, followed by 0.68, which was the low level in February. Below, 0.6685 is the next minor support line, followed by the year-to-date low 0f 0.6560.

I remain bullish on the kiwi.

With the markets not worried about Europe, the kiwi, with its high interest rate, has lots of room to rise. The GDP release will be critical for the pair.

Further reading:

• For a broad view of all the week’s major events worldwide, read the  forex weekly outlook.
• For EUR/USD, check out  the  Euro/Dollar Forecast.
• For GBP/USD  (cable), look into the  British Pound forecast.
• For the Australian dollar (Aussie), check out the  AUD/USD forecast.
• For USD/CAD (loonie), check out the  Canadian dollar forecast.

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