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This week is critical for the kiwi – a rate hike is expected from the central bank. Here’s an outlook for the events in New Zealand and an updated technical analysis for NZD/USD.

NZD/USD chart with support and resistance lines on it. Click to enlarge:

nzd usd forecast

The kiwi suffered from the American Non-Farm Payrolls, like all the other currencies, and lost the higher range it traded earlier. This week, local events will be of high importance. Let’s start:

  1. Manufacturing Sales: Published on Monday at 22:45 GMT. The total value of manufacturing sales in New Zealand rose by 0.7% in Q4 of 2009, cutting a whole year of drops. Another rise is expected in Q1 of 2010.
  2. Rate decision: Published on Wednesday at 21:00 GMT. Alan Bollard, head of the RBNZ, is expected to be the third central banker in the West to raise the interest rate. He is expected to lift the Official Cash Rate from 2.5% to 2.75%, given the global recovery. In the previous event, he said that this tightening cycle will probably be lighter than previous ones. The rate statement and the monetary policy statement that accompany the release are no less important – they will contain hints for the next moves.
  3. Business NZ Manufacturing Index: Published on Wednesday at 22:30 GMT. This survey of manufacturers has a similar score system as purchasing managers indices, with a score above 50 being positive. In the past 8 months, this indicator has been positive – climbing to 58.9 points last month. Another small rise is expected now.
  4. FPI: Published on Thursday at 22:45 GMT. The Food Price Index is released every month, while the overall consumer price index is released only once a quarter. So, this figure fills the gap. Prices have been quite volatile in the past months. Following last month’s drop, a rise is expected now.

NZD/USD Technical Analysis

The kiwi traded between 0.67 and 0.6850 throughout most of the week. It managed to climb a little bit higher, but then dropped sharply and closed at 0.6700.

The current range of 0.66 to 0.6850 continues to dominate the pair’s trading. Note that I’ve slightly extended the range from last week’s outlook.

Looking up, the next line of resistance above 0.6850 is 0.70 – a round number that also worked several times as a support line. 0.7050 works as a minor resistance line before the next strong line at 0.72, which proved to be strong when NZD/USD was trading higher.

If 0.72 is broken, the pair will find strong resistance at 0.7320. This line worked as a support line in January and also in April.

Looking down below 0.66, further support is found at 0.64, an area of struggle last summer. Further down, 0.62 already worked as a strong support line about a year ago.

I’m bullish on the kiwi.

The upcoming rate should boost the currency, which isn’t too sensitive to the European troubles.

Further reading:

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