NZD/USD Outlook – Nov. 29 – Dec. 3

Business confidence is the highlight of this week’s kiwi events, as the currency cannot avoid European troubles. Here’s an outlook for the events in New Zealand and an updated technical analysis for NZD/USD.

NZD/USD daily chart with support and resistance lines marked. Click to enlarge:

Inflation expectations, released this week in New Zealand, showed steady price rises, nothing that implies an upcoming rate hike. Will the kiwi continue weakening? Let’s start:

1. Trade Balance: Sunday, 21:45. New Zealand has a deficit in its trade balance in the past three months, weighing on the currency. This deficit is now expected to squeeze from 532 to 403 million, providing a good start for the kiwi.
2. NBNZ Business Confidence: Monday, 2:00. This important survey of 1500 businesses always rocks the kiwi. After a few months of deterioration, it has bounced back up, rising to 23.7 points last month. A similar figure is expected now from the RBNZ, showing stronger optimism.
3. Building Consents: Monday, 21:45. After a huge fall two months ago, the number of building approvals recovered last month with a rise of 0.5%. A bigger rise is expected this time.
4. ANZ Commodity Prices: Wednesday, 2:00. Despite being released after the Australian commodity prices number, NZD/USD still moves on this release. Last month saw a big jump of 2.8%, for the second time in a row. A drop is likely now.

After falling off 0.7740, NZD/USD fell under 0.7630 and tried to climb above it, but finally collapsed and closed at 0.7490, losing close to 300 pips.

Note that some lines have changed since last week’s outlook. Looking up, 0.7520, which was a peak one year ago and recently served as a pivotal line, is the immediate line of resistance. Above, 0.7630 was also a peak in 2009 and recently worked as support.

Higher, 0.7740 was a support line when the kiwi was trading higher and is now resistance. Even higher, 0.7885 caps the pair before the year to date high of 0.7974.

Looking down, the next support line is at 0.74, the  lowest  point in the past two months, and also a resistance line earlier. Below, minor support is found at 0.7355, which was a stubborn peak in the summer.

Below, 0.73 worked in both direction and is the next and close support line. Strong support is found at 0.72, which already had this role earlier. It’s closely followed by 0.7160, before the round number of 0.70. The last line for now is 0.6950 which was the lowest level in 4 months.

I am neutral on NZD/USD.

The headwinds form Europe were a big blow to the kiwi, despite sound fundamentals and an expected rise in commodity prices following QE2. A stabilization in the situation in Europe will allow the kiwi to stabilize as well.

Further reading:

• For a broad view of all the week’s major events worldwide, read the  USD outlook.
• For EUR/USD, check out  the  Euro/Dollar forecast.
• For the Japanese yen, read the  USD/JPY forecast.
• For GBP/USD  (cable), look into the  British Pound forecast.
• For the Australian dollar (Aussie), check out the  AUD to USD forecast.
• For USD/CAD (loonie), check out the  Canadian dollar.

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