The calendar in New Zealand is rather light in the upcoming week, so the kiwi will mostly depend on the general mood. Nevertheless, there are still a couple of meaningful events. Here’s an outlook for the events in New Zealand, and an updated technical analysis for NZD/USD.
NZD/USD daily chart with support and resistance lines marked. Click to enlarge:
The kiwi dollar enjoyed the greenback’s weakness, but fell short of the extraordinary gains seen with the Aussie. Will this continue?
- ANZ Commodity Prices: Monday, 2:00. As an exporter of commodities, New Zealand depends on commodity prices. In the past three months, commodity prices fell, with 1.4% last month. A rise is expected this time.
- NZIER Business Confidence: Monday, 21:00. This wide quarterly survey of 3500 businesses has a very strong impact on the kiwi. The figure has been positive in the past year, indicating optimism. On the other hand, the figure dropped from a peak of 36 points to 18 points. Another drop is due now, but still remaining in positive territory.
All times are GMT.
NZD/USD Technical Analysis
The kiwi had a rough time with the 0.7350 line before pushing up to the 0.74 region. A push towards the end of the week sent the pair briefly above the 0.7440 line before closing at 0.7430.
Looking up, 0.7440 was a stubborn peak at the beginning of the year and now provides immediate resistance. It’s followed by 0.7523 which was a swing high in November 2009.
Above, 0.7634 was a peak in October and is the highest level in two years. Beyond, 0.7760 and 0.7920 are distant lines that were last seen in 2008.
Looking down, 0.74 temporarily capped the pair in the past week and also July – it’s now an immediate support line. 0.7350 that capped the pair at the end of July and the beginning of August, is now a minor line after being shattered in the past week.
0.7260 provided support at the beginning of September and is already a more significant line of support. 0.7210 is another support line from September.
Below, 0.71 worked in both directions in August. It’s followed by the round number of 0.70, that had a role many times in the past.
I turn from neutral to bearish on the kiwi.
Fundamentals in New Zealand weren’t too good in the past week. Without extreme greenback weakness, the kiwi cannot continue running.
- For a broad view of all the week’s major events worldwide, read the USD outlook.
- For EUR/USD, check out the Euro/Dollar forecast.
- For the Japanese yen, read the USD/JPY forecast.
- For GBP/USD (cable), look into the British Pound forecast.
- For the Australian dollar (Aussie), check out the AUD/USD forecast.
- For USD/CAD (loonie), check out the Canadian dollar forecast.
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