NZD/USD Outlook – September 20-24

GDP leads the pack of economic indicators that will move the kiwi in the upcoming week. Here’s an outlook for the events in New Zealand and an updated technical analysis for NZD/USD.

NZD/USD daily chart with support and resistance lines on it. Click to enlarge:

The RBNZ decided to leave the interest rate unchanged at 3%. While this was expected, the gloomy statement was a burden on the kiwi. We’ll now get an overall picture of the economy:

1. Visitor Arrivals: Monday, 22:45. The economy of New Zealand is dependent on tourism, making this indicator important. Last month saw a rise of 1.4%, double the previous month. This time, the number will probably fall.
2. Credit Card Spending: Tuesday, 3:00. This indicator complement the retail sales figure, as a significant portion of consumption is done via credit cards. Strong rises were seen in recent months – 3.4%, 4.5% and 2.7%. A rise is expected this time as well, but it will probably be more modest.
3. Current Account: Tuesday, 22:45. This quarterly figure is of high importance, despite being published rather late and after the related trade balance number has already been released. Q1 was a big surprise – a small surplus was reported on top of expectations for a deficit in the current account. Q2 will probably see a surplus as well.
4. GDP: Wednesday, 22:45. New Zealand enjoys economic growth for a full year. The growth rate in Q4 of 2009 and in Q1 of 2010 exceeded expectations, 0.9% and 0.6% respectively. As the unemployment rate jumped, and retail sales slumped, the growth rate will probably be weaker this time, at 0.5%.

The kiwi began the week higher – it traded between 0.7290 to 0.7350 (appeared last week as well). An attempt to break higher bounced just under 0.74 and the pair fell down to support at 0.72. Another recovery sent the pair to close at 0.7246.

The past week’s low of .7210 now provides minor support for NZD/USD. The next support line is very close – 0.7160 capped the pair in June and provided support recently.

Lower, 0.71 worked as a stepping stone in the recent ascent and is a minor support line. Below, the round number of 0.70 is already a strong line. It’s followed by 0.69, which capped the pair when it was trading lower, during the turmoil in May.

Looking up, 0.7290 is the immediate line of resistance, followed by 0.7350, which is now a strong resistance line.

Above, the next line of resistance is very close – 0.74 – it capped the pair just this week, and also in July. This double top is key resistance. Above, 0.7440 which held the pair for a few consecutive days at the beginning of the year, is the next line of resistance.

I remain bearish on NZD/USD.

With the pause in rate hikes, and the expected weaker GDP, the kiwi is likely to  under-perform.

Further reading:

• For a broad view of all the week’s major events worldwide, read the  USD outlook.
• For EUR/USD, check out  the  Euro/Dollar forecast.
• For the Japanese yen, read the  USD/JPY forecast.
• For GBP/USD  (cable), look into the  British Pound forecast.
• For the Australian dollar (Aussie), check out the  AUD/USD forecast.
• For USD/CAD (loonie), check out the  Canadian dollar forecast.

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