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Crude oil prices are settling in the low $30/bbl range, with the risk-on tone helping to provide a bid on the day. Strategists at TD Securities take a look at the future events surrounding the black gold.

Key quotes

“The price war is taking the next step with Saudi Arabia announcing a some 2.6m bpd increase in production for April, to 12.3m bpd, while Russian Energy Minister Novak is set to meet with oil bosses today to discuss next steps, where he notes they have capacity to increase production by up to 500k bpd in fairly short order.” 

“One glimmer of hope were the comments that Russia is not closing the door on future cooperation with OPEC, meanwhile President Trump calling the Saudi Prince in relation to the price war has increased speculation that the President could use his political influence in Saudi Arabia to support the market should the US industry feel major pain.”

“In terms of CTAs, we do not expect any material moves as funds were already positioned extremely short in the complex, and elevated volatility will keep excess positioning in check for now.”

 

Expert score

5

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