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The impact of coronavirus alongside future reductions on production makes analysts at TD Securities bet on crude’s upside backed on some technical indicators.

Key Quotes

“The initial estimates of the impact on demand appear to have been far too low. Initial estimates ranged around an impact of 300k bpd, while the most recent suggest an impact up to three million barrels a day, or 20% of total Chinese consumption.”

“Energy market participants are looking for ‘peak coronavirus fear’, as lower liquidity and a massive selling program across the complex helped prices overshoot.”

“Indeed, OPEC+ is mulling an emergency meeting which could curtail an additional 500k-1m bpd of production.”

“Mean-reversion indicators, which have performed smartly over the past 3m, are pointing in favor of the longs. (…) We argue that energy complex is trading somewhat cheap to the near-term outlook.”