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At today’s MPC meeting, there is little doubt that the NBP will keep its reference rate on hold at 1.5%, where it has been since March 2015, according to analysts at TD Securities.

Key Quotes

“Although EURPLN has been quite volatile and pressured higher recently, it does not appear to be at a particularly extreme level looking at the longer-term history. And CPI inflation continues to be fairly well-behaved.”

“Headline inflation moved up to 1.9% Y/Y in June from a prior 1.7%, almost entirely due to the effect of higher oil prices. It still remains below the 2.5% central inflation target, but, more importantly, core inflation is running at even lower levels, 0.5% Y/Y in May. The NBP will also present its updated forecasts for CPI inflation and GDP for 2018, 2019 and 2020.”